Fibrotic-Like Pulmonary Radiographic Patterns Are Not Associated With Adverse Outcomes in COVID-19 Chronic Critical Illness.

OBJECTIVES: Pulmonary fibrosis is a feared complication of COVID-19. To characterize the risks and outcomes associated with fibrotic-like radiographic abnormalities in patients with COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and chronic critical illness. DESIGN: Single-center prospective cohort study. SETTING: We examined chest CT scans performed between ICU discharge and 30 days after hospital discharge using established methods to quantify nonfibrotic and fibrotic-like patterns. PATIENTS: Adults hospitalized with COVID-19-related ARDS and chronic critical illness (> 21 d of mechanical ventilation, tracheostomy, and survival to ICU discharge) between March 2020 and May 2020. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We tested associations of fibrotic-like patterns with clinical characteristics and biomarkers, and with time to mechanical ventilator liberation and 6-month survival, controlling for demographics, comorbidities, and COVID-19 therapies. A total of 141 of 616 adults (23%) with COVID-19-related ARDS developed chronic critical illness, and 64 of 141 (46%) had a chest CT a median (interquartile range) 66 days (42-82 d) after intubation. Fifty-five percent had fibrotic-like patterns characterized by reticulations and/or traction bronchiectasis. In adjusted analyses, interleukin-6 level on the day of intubation was associated with fibrotic-like patterns (odds ratio, 4.40 per quartile change; 95% CI, 1.90-10.1 per quartile change). Other inflammatory biomarkers, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, age, tidal volume, driving pressure, and ventilator days were not. Fibrotic-like patterns were not associated with longer time to mechanical ventilator liberation or worse 6-month survival. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately half of adults with COVID-19-associated chronic critical illness have fibrotic-like patterns that are associated with higher interleukin-6 levels at intubation. Fibrotic-like patterns are not associated with longer time to liberation from mechanical ventilation or worse 6-month survival.

Relationship Between Body Composition and Death in Patients with COVID-19 Differs Based on the Presence of Gastrointestinal Symptoms.

BACKGROUND: Patients with SARS-CoV-2 who present with gastrointestinal symptoms have a milder clinical course than those who do not. Risk factors for severe COVID-19 disease include increased adiposity and sarcopenia. AIMS: To determine whether body composition risk factors are associated with worse outcomes among patients with gastrointestinal symptoms. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who underwent abdominal CT scan for clinical indications. Abdominal body composition measures including skeletal muscle index (SMI), intramuscular adipose tissue index (IMATI), visceral adipose tissue index (VATI), subcutaneous adipose tissue index (SATI), visceral-to-subcutaneous adipose tissue ratio (VAT/SAT ratio), and liver and spleen attenuation were collected. The association between body composition measurements and 30-day mortality was evaluated in patients with and without gastrointestinal symptoms at the time of positive SARS-CoV-2 test. RESULTS: Abdominal CT scans of 190 patients with COVID-19 were evaluated. Gastrointestinal symptoms including nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, or abdominal pain were present in 117 (62%). Among patients without gastrointestinal symptoms, those who died had greater IMATI (p = 0.049), less SMI (p = 0.010), and a trend toward a greater VAT/SAT ratio. Among patients with gastrointestinal symptoms, those who died had significantly greater IMATI (p = 0.025) but no differences in other measures. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with COVID-19, those without gastrointestinal symptoms showed the expected associations between mortality and low SMI, high IMATI, and trend toward higher VAT/SAT ratio, but those with gastrointestinal symptoms did not. Future studies should explore the mechanisms for the altered disease course in patients with COVID-19 who present with gastrointestinal symptoms.

Rationing scarce healthcare capacity: A study of the ventilator allocation guidelines during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In the United States, even though national guidelines for allocating scarce healthcare resources are lacking, 26 states have specific ventilator allocation guidelines to be invoked in case of a shortage. While several states developed their guidelines in response to the recent COVID-19 pandemic, New York State developed these guidelines in 2015 as "pandemic influenza is a foreseeable threat, one that we cannot ignore." The primary objective of this study is to assess the existing procedures and priority rules in place for allocating/rationing scarce ventilator capacity and propose alternative (and improved) priority schemes. We first build machine learning models using inpatient records of COVID-19 patients admitted to New York-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center and an affiliated community health center to predict survival probabilities as well as ventilator length-of-use. Then, we use the resulting point estimators and their uncertainties as inputs for a multiclass priority queueing model with abandonments to assess three priority schemes: (i) SOFA-P (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment based prioritization), which most closely mimics the existing practice by prioritizing patients with sufficiently low SOFA scores; (ii) ISP (incremental survival probability), which assigns priority based on patient-level survival predictions; and (iii) ISP-LU (incremental survival probability per length-of-use), which takes into account survival predictions and resource use duration. Our findings highlight that our proposed priority scheme, ISP-LU, achieves a demonstrable improvement over the other two alternatives. Specifically, the expected number of survivals increases and death risk while waiting for ventilator use decreases. We also show that ISP-LU is a robust priority scheme whose implementation yields a Pareto-improvement over both SOFA-P and ISP in terms of maximizing saved lives after mechanical ventilation while limiting racial disparity in access to the priority queue.

Impact of Obesity in Critical Illness.

The prevalence of obesity is rising worldwide. Adipose tissue exerts anatomic and physiological effects with significant implications for critical illness. Changes in respiratory mechanics cause expiratory flow limitation, atelectasis, and V̇/Q̇ mismatch with resultant hypoxemia. Altered work of breathing and obesity hypoventilation syndrome may cause hypercapnia. Challenging mask ventilation and peri-intubation hypoxemia may complicate intubation. Patients with obesity are at increased risk of ARDS and should receive lung-protective ventilation based on predicted body weight. Increased positive end expiratory pressure (PEEP), coupled with appropriate patient positioning, may overcome the alveolar decruitment and intrinsic PEEP caused by elevated baseline pleural pressure; however, evidence is insufficient regarding the impact of high PEEP strategies on outcomes. Venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation may be safely performed in patients with obesity. Fluid management should account for increased prevalence of chronic heart and kidney disease, expanded blood volume, and elevated acute kidney injury risk. Medication pharmacodynamics and pharmacokinetics may be altered by hydrophobic drug distribution to adipose depots and comorbid liver or kidney disease. Obesity is associated with increased risk of VTE and infection; appropriate dosing of prophylactic anticoagulation and early removal of indwelling catheters may decrease these risks. Obesity is associated with improved critical illness survival in some studies. It is unclear whether this reflects a protective effect or limitations inherent to observational research. Obesity is associated with increased risk of intubation and death in SARS-CoV-2 infection. Ongoing molecular studies of adipose tissue may deepen our understanding of how obesity impacts critical illness pathophysiology.

What about tocilizumab? A retrospective study from a NYC Hospital during the COVID-19 outbreak.

BACKGROUND: Tocilizumab, an interleukin-6 receptor blocker, has been used in the inflammatory phase of COVID-19, but its impact independent of corticosteroids remains unclear in patients with severe disease. METHODS: In this retrospective analysis of patients with COVID-19 admitted between March 2 and April 14, 2020 to a large academic medical center in New York City, we describe outcomes associated with tocilizumab 400 mg (without methylprednisolone) compared to a propensity-matched control. The primary endpoints were change in a 7-point ordinal scale of oxygenation and ventilator free survival, both at days 14 and 28. Secondary endpoints include incidence of bacterial superinfections and gastrointestinal perforation. Primary outcomes were evaluated using t-test. RESULTS: We identified 33 patients who received tocilizumab and matched 74 controls based on demographics and health measures upon admission. After adjusting for illness severity and baseline ordinal scale, we failed to find evidence of an improvement in hypoxemia based on an ordinal scale at hospital day 14 in the tocilizumab group (OR 2.2; 95% CI, 0.7-6.5; p = 0.157) or day 28 (OR 1.1; 95% CI, 0.4-3.6; p = 0.82). There also was no evidence of an improvement in ventilator-free survival at day 14 (OR 0.8; 95% CI, 0.18-3.5; p = 0.75) or day 28 (OR 1.1; 95% CI, 0.1-1.8; p = 0.23). There was no increase in secondary bacterial infection rates in the tocilizumab group compared to controls (OR 0.37; 95% CI, 0.09-1.53; p = 0.168). CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence to support an improvement in hypoxemia or ventilator-free survival with use of tocilizumab 400 mg in the absence of corticosteroids. No increase in secondary bacterial infections was observed in the group receiving tocilizumab.

Geographic Differences in Lung Transplant Volume and Donor Availability During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Regional variation in lung transplantation practices due to local coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevalence may cause geographic disparities in access to lung transplantation. METHODS: Using the United Network for Organ Sharing registry, we conducted a descriptive analysis of lung transplant volume, donor lung volume, new waitlist activations, and waiting list deaths at high-volume lung transplant centers during the first 3 months of the pandemic (March 1. 2020, to May 30, 2020) and we compared it to the same period in the preceding 5 years. RESULTS: Lung transplant volume decreased by 10% nationally and by a median of 50% in high COVID-19 prevalence centers (range -87% to 80%) compared with a median increase of 10% (range -87% to 80%) in low prevalence centers (P-for-trend 0.006). Donation services areas with high COVID-19 prevalence experienced a greater decrease in organ availability (-28% range, -72% to -11%) compared with low prevalence areas (+7%, range -20% to + 55%, P-for-trend 0.001). Waiting list activations decreased at 18 of 22 centers. Waiting list deaths were similar to the preceding 5 years and independent of local COVID-19 prevalence (P-for-trend 0.36). CONCLUSIONS: Regional variation in transplantation and donor availability in the early months of the pandemic varied by local COVID-19 activity.

Body Mass Index and Risk for Intubation or Death in SARS-CoV-2 Infection : A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a risk factor for pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether obesity is associated with intubation or death, inflammation, cardiac injury, or fibrinolysis in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: A quaternary academic medical center and community hospital in New York City. PARTICIPANTS: 2466 adults hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection over a 45-day period with at least 47 days of in-hospital observation. MEASUREMENTS: Body mass index (BMI), admission biomarkers of inflammation (C-reactive protein [CRP] level and erythrocyte sedimentation rate [ESR]), cardiac injury (troponin level), and fibrinolysis (D-dimer level). The primary end point was a composite of intubation or death in time-to-event analysis. RESULTS: Over a median hospital length of stay of 7 days (interquartile range, 3 to 14 days), 533 patients (22%) were intubated, 627 (25%) died, and 59 (2%) remained hospitalized. Compared with overweight patients, patients with obesity had higher risk for intubation or death, with the highest risk among those with class 3 obesity (hazard ratio, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.1 to 2.1]). This association was primarily observed among patients younger than 65 years and not in older patients (P for interaction by age = 0.042). Body mass index was not associated with admission levels of biomarkers of inflammation, cardiac injury, or fibrinolysis. LIMITATIONS: Body mass index was missing for 28% of patients. The primary analyses were conducted with multiple imputation for missing BMI. Upper bounding factor analysis suggested that the results are robust to possible selection bias. CONCLUSION: Obesity is associated with increased risk for intubation or death from COVID-19 in adults younger than 65 years, but not in adults aged 65 years or older. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.